When the market falls, Apple shares usually fall further. Investors should brace for the worst if the broader market continues its decline.
What to make of Apple's new volatility
When the market falls, Apple shares usually fall further. Investors should brace for the worst if the broader market continues its decline.
For as long as I can remember, Apple (AAPL) has been a slave to the direction of the broader market despite its unusually strong fundamentals. Whenever the broader market sells off, Apple's drop is more severe. When the market rallies, investors tend to focus on Apple's excellent fundamentals, and the price action becomes 代写英语市场调研报告more representative of what the stock should be worth.
For example, in August 2007, while the DJIA underwent a 10.7% correction, Apple saw its stock price get utterly slaughtered, falling 33% -- triple the market's move. And this came at a time when the iPhone craze had just hit and Macintosh computers were flying off the shelf in droves. There was no clear fundamental basis to warrant such a big move down.
That October, it happened again. In a 4-day period, the Dow dropped 8% while Apple shares plunged 21.9%. In January 2008, when the bear market first started to pick up steam, the DJIA experienced a 13.5% correction in a two and a half-month period, while Apple's share price was nearly cut in half, from $203 to $115. Again, this came at a time when Apple's fundamentals were arguably stronger than nearly every other stock in the U.S. equity markets.
Throughout the financial crisis, Apple posted one record quarter after another, posting huge increases in revenue and earnings. In fact, there was a lot of evidence suggesting that Apple was the most undervalued of the large cap tech stocks and by quite a large margin. To get an idea of just how irrational the market got with Apple during the financial crisis, the Financial Select Spiders (XLF) fell 70% in the same period of time when Apple dropped 60%. The market treated Apple as if it were a financial stock despite its massive cash horde and zero debt.
On Tuesday, shares of Apple plunged 4.5% while the DJIA shed 2.7%. Will history repeat itself or have Apple's strong fundamentals become so widely known as to make it more immune to the whims of the broader market? This question couldn't come at a better time as discussion over this gigantic 8-month head & shoulders move /in the stock market makes its way through the financial world.
Several technical analysts believe the market is getting ready to make a very big move down in the markets, and that there's a growing possibility that a double-dip recession might even take us down to retest the bear market lows -– though I don't think this is a strong possibility at the moment. Yet, evidence suggests there's a strong case to be made for a move to 950 on the S&P and 8800 on the Dow. If we get this sort of dramatic drop, what should Apple investors expect?
One can argue that a big move down in Apple's stock price might be in the cards over the next few weeks. At the same time, however, Apple has held up quite well in the face of this May–June 2010 correction. While the market has plunged almost 13%, Apple even made new all-time highs of $279 right in the middle of this correction.
In the past, a 12-13% sell-off in the markets usually amounted to a collapse in Apple's stock price. But that didn't happen this time, despite the fact that a sell-off is well overdue since the stock has catapulted straight up from a bear market low of $78 to $279 without any meaningful pullbacks.
That being said, when Apple outsells the broader market, it tends to be a bad sign for the market overall and for Apple investors in particular. Apple has been the market leader in this recovery, and once the market starts to lose faith in its leaders, that's when things really unravel. So while some evidence suggests that the 2010 Apple is a new and more resilient Apple than the Apple of the past, recent weakness in the stock appears as if it is ready to resume its old ways.
如何看待苹果近来的股价波动？
苹果公司的股票跌幅往往高于同期市场跌幅。因此，如果宏观市场继续走低，投资者恐怕要做好最坏的打算。
据我所知，尽管苹果公司（Apple）的基本面异常出色，它的股价一直随大盘的走势波动。每当大盘下跌，苹果股票的跌幅会超过市场的下跌程度。而当市场回升时，投资者又开始看好苹果的优秀业绩，其股价动向更能反映其股票价值。
代写英语市场调研报告 例如，2007年8月，道琼斯工业平均指数（DJIA）向下调整了10.7%，同期苹果的股票遭受重创，下跌了33%，几乎是市场跌幅的三倍。要知道，当时iPhone已经风靡全球，而Macintosh电脑也被抢购一空。我们找不到任何基本面的因素，支持如此强劲的下跌趋势。
类似的情形在同年10月重演。短短四天时间，道指下跌了8%，而苹果则下跌了21.9%。2008年1月，随着市场逐渐步入熊途，道指在两个半月内遭遇了13.5%的跌幅，而同期苹果的股价却被腰斩，从203美元/股跌至115美元/股。悖论再次出现了：当时苹果公司的业绩表现，几乎强于美国股市上的其他任何一只股票。
金融危机时代的苹果公司，保持着收入与利润的巨大增长，接连几个季度刷新了业绩记录。有充分的证据表明，苹果公司是大盘科技股中最被低估的一只，而且具有相当的安全边际。金融危机期间，金融行业指数基金Financial Select Spiders缩水了70%，而同期苹果股票下跌了60%，这充分说明了市场对于苹果公司的非理性程度。虽然苹果拥有巨额的现金储备，而且没有负债，但市场却把它当做金融股来看待。
上周二，苹果的股票下跌4.5%，而当天道指下跌了2.7%。历史是否会重演？抑或苹果广为人知的出色业绩，使它能够更好的抵御宏观市场的波动？问题来的正是时候，因为目前人们关注的焦点，就是长达8个月的巨大头肩顶形态，正在金融市场上形成。
很多技术分析师相信，市场已经做好大幅下跌的准备，新一轮衰退的可能性正在上升，并会带领市场二次探底。虽然我认为这种可能性还不大，但有证据表明，标普指数（S&P）很有可能跌至950，同时道指将会跌至8800。如果以上猜想成真，那么苹果的投资者将面对怎样的走势？
有人认为，苹果的股价可能会在未来几周出现下滑。与此同时，苹果在2010年5月-6月的市场调整中，一直表现良好。期间大盘下跌了13%，而苹果却在调整中期，创下了279美元/股的历史新高。
过去，大盘下跌12-13%左右，通常会带动苹果股价大幅跳水。但这次情况却有所不同。市场对苹果的波及效应没有及时体现，虽说其股价已经从熊市低点78美元/股，直线拉升到了279美元/股，留下了大幅下跌的空间。
话说回来，代写英语市场调研报告当苹果跌幅超过大盘的时候，对整体市场而言是一个不好的信号，对苹果的投资者而言尤其如此。苹果在经济复苏中担任了领导者的角色。当市场开始对领导者失去信心，所有的下跌就顺理成章了。有人认为，2010的苹果将比以往任何时候都要坚挺。然而，近期苹果股票的弱势表现，似乎证明它将又一次步入过去的轨道。