Debt market strips U.S. of triple-A rating
The United States has lost its gold-plated triple-A rating -- in the eyes of credit traders, at least.
U.S.英语行业分析报告 sovereign debt was the third-worst performer in a closely watched derivatives market during the third quarter, CMA said Tuesday in its quarterly review of global sovereign credit risk.
Not a vote of confidence
The cost of insuring against a default on U.S. government bonds via so-called credit default swaps rose 28% in the quarter ended Sept. 30, the firm said.
That puts the United States' third-quarter performance behind only two other nations, both of which are struggling with the early stages of sovereign debt crises: Ireland, whose CDS prices rocketed 72% to a record amid growing questions about the costs of a massive bank bailout, and Portugal, whose costs jumped 30%.
/ What's more, the decline leaves U.S. debt trading at an implied rating of double-A-plus for the first time in memory.
Despite building worries about its financial outlook, the U.S. had traded in recent quarters in line with its triple-A rating from S&P and Moody's. But some skeptics have been arguing the U.S. is overrated, and that argument now seems to be gaining steam.
"You can see an indication of concern about the easing course the Fed is likely to continue on," said Sean Egan, who runs the Egan-Jones credit rating agency in Haverford, Pa. "There's a number of items that are going to be difficult to reverse as we get down that road, starting with the dramatic underfunding of state pension funds."
The shift comes at a head-spinning time for the U.S. economy. The government has run two straight trillion-dollar-plus budget deficits, with more to come. Yet Treasury bonds are trading at record-low yields, reflecting questions about the economic outlook.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is considering another round of major asset purchases in a policy observers have dubbed QE2, for the central bank's second attempt at quantitative easing – a bid to boost economic activity by expanding the size of the Fed's balance sheet.
Comments by Fed chief Ben Bernanke and other policymakers have sent the dollar tumbling to its lowest level since January and helped light a fuse under commodity prices. Those remarks have had the effect of making even weak economic numbers look bullish, by suggesting the Fed will ride in if jobs data, for instance, get too ugly.
The rising price of insuring against a default on U.S. government debt is of a piece with these moves and suggests the full tab for the profligacy of the past decade has yet to be presented.
To be sure, a default on U.S. debt remains a remote possibility. Even after the third quarter's runup, it costs just $48,000 annually to insure for five years against a default on $10 million worth of Treasury securities. That's a tenth the going rate on Irish debt and about one-eighth the price prevailing in Portugal.
And at that, CDS spreads are far from a pure read on default risk. A report by rating agency Fitch on Tuesday noted that credit default swaps performed "unevenly" during the credit crisis in predicting defaults by companies and other private-sector debt issuers.
"While there are notable instances in which CDS spread widening preceded eventual defaults, there have also been numerous false positives where spreads ramped up dramatically even though few if any defaults ensued," Fitch wrote.
Even so, the third-quarter rise in its CDS spreads knocks the U.S. out of the triple-A league it has long shared with the likes of Germany, Switzerland and the Nordic countries, all of which regularly run trade surpluses and have relatively manageable debt positions.
It's early to say there's no going back, but our political leaders certainly have their work cut out for them – without any particular sign they're up to the task.
债务市场剥夺美国3A评级
英语行业分析报告 至少在信贷交易员们的眼中，美国已经失去了它那闪闪发光的3A评级。
数据供应商CMA本周二在对国际主权信贷风险的季度回顾中指出，今年第三季度，在倍受瞩目的金融衍生品市场上，美国主权债务的表现为倒数第三。市场缺乏信心
CMA表示，今年第三季度，通过信用违约互换来规避美国国债违约风险的成本上升了28%。
这使得美国第三季度的表现仅仅强于另两个正与主权债务危机的早期阶段做斗争的国家。它们是：一，爱尔兰。爱尔兰启动了对银行业的大规模救助，随着人们对救助成本的质疑声不断高涨，爱尔兰的信用违约互换价格飙升了72%，创下有史以来最高纪录。二，葡萄牙。葡萄牙的信用违约互换价格也猛涨了30%。
此外，这次下跌暗示着美国债务评级下跌至2A+，这还是记忆中的头一次。
尽管对于美国金融前景的担忧与日俱增，但美国最近几个季度的交易却符合标准普尔（S&P）和穆迪（Moody's）给出的3A评级。不过有些怀疑人士认为美国的评级被高估了，而且这种看法似乎正在盛行起来。
位于宾西法尼亚州哈弗德市的信用评级机构Egan-Jones的负责人肖恩•伊根表示：“美联储的宽松政策很可能会继续下去，你可以看出，有迹象表明大众对此存在担忧。一旦我们沿着宽松政策的道路走下走，许多项目的走势将难以逆转，首当其冲的就是各州养老基金的资金供给将严重不足。”
眼下对于美国经济来说正是个十分头痛的时候。美国政府连续两个财年的赤字都在1万亿美元以上，以后还会有更多的赤字。而且美国国债的收益创造了历史新低，这反映出了人们对美国经济前景的质疑。
与此同时，美联储还在考虑另一轮大规模的资产采购，观察人士将这一政策称作QE2，即美国央行的第二轮量化宽松政策。该政策寄希望于扩大美联储的资产负债规模，以促进经济活动。
美联储主席本•伯南克和其它政策制定者发表的言论，已经使美元下跌到一月份以来的最低点，而且帮助市场点燃了商品价格飙升的导火索。他们暗示道，在必要的时候，比如就业数据变得太难看的时候，美联储将出手干预。这些言论成功地让疲软的经济数据看起来足够乐观。
信用违约互换价格的上涨与这些行动是一致的，而且它说明了在过去10年里，美国因挥霍无度所欠下的账，还没到彻底清算的时候。
诚然，美国国债出现违约的可能性很小。尽管信用违约互换价格在第三季度猛涨，1000万美元的五年期美国国债的违约保险成本仅为每年4.8万美元。这仅仅是爱尔兰国债信用违约互换价格的十分之一，葡萄牙的八分之一。
在这种价格水平上，信用违约互换息差根本无法精确地预测违约风险。评级机构惠誉（Fitch）本周二发布报告称，在信用危机期间，信用违约互换在预测企业和其它私营部门债券发行者的违约行为时，表现“不稳定”。
惠誉的报告指出：“尽管在一些值得注意的案例中，在最终的违约发生前，出现了信用违约互换息差的扩大，不过也发生过无数次误报，即信用违约互换息差虽然显著上升英语行业分析报告 ，但随后却很少发生违约。”
即便如此，由于美国第三季度信用违约互换息差上升，还是使美国跌出了3A国家的行列。美国长期以来一直保持着3A国家的地位，其它3A国家还包括德国、瑞士以及其它北欧国家，这些国家都经常性地保持贸易盈余，而且具有相对易于控制的债务水平。
现在就断言美国无法重返“3A联盟”还为时尚早，但这显然是政治领导人的职责所在——不过目前看来，没有任何特别的迹象表明他们胜任这个任务。