金融英语翻译美元熊市近在咫尺
曾经坚挺无比的美元又一次沦陷了。究竟为何？
美国七月份就业报告出炉，许多数据都不容乐观。因此，美元对日元和欧元汇率继续下跌。根据报告，上个月美国私营部门的雇主只增加了7.1万个职位，而非农产业的雇员数量缩减程度也超出了预期。
“总体看来，这的的确确是一份让人失望的报告。”咨询机构Capital Economics驻多伦多的经济学家撰文表示。
就业增长乏力，导致贸易加权的美元指数跌至80.3，比两个月前的峰值缩水了9%。
股市观察家认为，跌幅超过10%就意味着熊市。但今夏我们目睹的市场起伏，远远超出了以上定义的范围。
今年六月，美元汇率正处于高位，1欧元仅能兑换1.18美元，而1美元能兑换92日元。当时，美国经济复苏态势强劲，而欧洲却濒临全盘崩溃的边缘。一些欧元怀疑论者呼吁，美元应当与欧元平价交易。
但在上周五，1欧元已经能兑换1.33美元，而1美元只能兑换85日元，创下美元对日元汇率15年的新低。反对派们这下更是有话说了，纷纷跳出来大肆攻击本•伯南克的扩张政策。
Euro Pacific位于美国康乃狄格州的西港，公司管理人彼得•希夫一直反对美国的财政扩张政策。他认为，“投机资本正在快速撤离美元市场。”
最近一年里，美国失业率都未能低于现在的9.5%，而几乎没有人预期2010年实际失业率会下降。就业增长持续萎靡，迫使美国政府研究新的措施来推动经济复苏。
上上周，圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长詹姆斯•布拉德发表了一篇反响极大的文章，称美国会步日本后尘，在长达十年的时间里，陷入经济停滞状态。布拉德表示，新发行的美联邦国债“将是避免重蹈日本覆辙的最佳手段”。
但市场对联邦国债的态度却不够乐观。因为这意味着美国政府印制了更多的钞票，以支持短期的货币刺激计划。批评界认为，上述策略产生的作用正在减弱，并且这会进一步贬低美元的价值。
希夫表示，“大量发行钞票来采购政府债券，会对美元汇率带来巨大压力。”
希夫是美元贬值论调的代表人物。他们指出，近期美元的贬值伴随着油价的上涨（油价已经涨至82美元/桶）。而他们关注的另一个指标——每盎司黄金价格，自七月中旬以来首次回升至1,200美元以上。
金融学英语翻译 没错，这一幕的确似曾相识。美元贬值似乎不可阻挡，除非海外形势突然恶化，发展势头突然逆转。但起码现在看来，美元绝对不是安全投资转移的目的地。
Dollar near bear market territory
How the once-mighty dollar has fallen -- again.
The dollar tumbled against the yen and euro Friday morning after July's U.S. job report brought more bad news. Private sector employers added just 71,000 jobs last month, and total nonfarm payrolls contracted more than expected.
"Overall, unquestionably a disappointing report," economists at Capital Economics in Toronto wrote.
The latest sign that job growth isn't keeping up sent the trade-weighted dollar index down to 80.3. That's 9% below its peak just two months ago.
Stock market watchers call a 10% decline a bear market, and the term doesn't seem too bold given the speed of the sentiment shift we have seen this summer.
In June, when the dollar topped out at $1.18 against the euro and 92 yen, the recovery in the United States looked more robust and Europe seemed on the verge of being sent to its death bed. Some euroskeptics were calling for the dollar to trade at parity with the euro.
But on Friday, the dollar approached $1.33 against the euro and 85 yen, which puts it near a 15-year low against the Japanese currency. Opponents of Fed chief Ben Bernanke's expansive policies, rarely at a loss for words, were out in full throat.
"The smart money is quickly running away from the greenback," said Peter Schiff, a longtime critic of U.S. fiscal profligacy who runs Euro Pacific Capital in Westport, Conn.
The unemployment rate hasn't been below its current 9.5% in a year, and few forecasters expect to see it decline substantially in 2010. The failure of job growth to pick up has gotten officials talking about new ways to support the economic recovery.
Most notable was a paper issued last week by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard, in which he contended that the United States could face a Japan-style decade of economic stagnation. He said another round of Fed Treasury bond purchases offers "the best tool to avoid such an outcome."
The markets don't necessarily fancy the use of that tool, though, because it implies the government will print more money to provide short-term monetary stimulus – a tactic that skeptics see as having diminishing returns and, moreover, as debasing the value of the dollar.
"The printing of trillions of dollars to purchase of government debt will put serious pressure on the value of the dollar," Schiff said.
Schiff and other dollar-debasement hawks note that the decline in the dollar recently has been accompanied by a rise in the oil price, to $82 a barrel. Another indicator dollar doubters watch, the price of an ounce of gold, has risen back above $1,200 for the first time since mid-July./
Of course, we have seen this movie before. The dollar's decline will seem to be inexorable until suddenly conditions deteriorate somewhere overseas and the momentum suddenly shifts again. But for now the flight to safety seems to be running very much away from the dollar.