债务危机忧虑再现，金价直指历史高位
出于对欧洲银行健康状况的担忧，本周二黄金价格大幅飙升，直指历史高位。
近期出炉的一系列报告，再次引发了市场对银行资本水平的担忧，这些银行由于持有泥足深陷的欧洲国家，如希腊、葡萄牙、爱尔兰、意大利和西班牙发行的债券而倍受拖累，因此金价上涨了7美元，达到1,258美元每盎司。
商务英语翻译周二的涨幅使金价较仲夏时期的低点累计上升了近100美元每盎司，离6月份的历史高位1,260美元仅咫尺之遥。这同时也印证了黄金多头方的预测，在基本风平浪静的夏天，他们一直坚称，一旦金融市场面临另一场危机，金价的跌势就会扭转。
然而当欧洲银行债务危机周二成为大众关注焦点时，在很大程度上也让投资者认识到整个局势都很严峻：经济复苏无力，发达国家政府正苦苦寻求增长，同时确保其财政状况不再恶化。
汤姆•温米尔管理着1.05亿美元的Midas基金，该基金主要投资于贵金属板块的股票，他指出：“对经济前景的忧虑正是金价逆转的首要因素。”
温米尔表示，最大的担忧在于，包括美联储主席本•伯南克在内的决策者们，决定将更多现金投入市场流通，以支撑疲弱无力的经济复苏，这将导致美元进一步贬值。由于巨大的债务负担，以及不断上涨的税率，美国经济不堪重负。他预计在接下来的10年中，美国国内生产总值的平均增速仅能达到1%至2%。
温米尔称，美国与欧洲央行激进的金融措施，加之美国国会在处理美国一贯的过度开支问题上的失败，促使金价在2010年剩余时间以及未来都呈现出持续上升的态势。他指出，尽管金价在过去十年已经翻了三倍，现在购买黄金作为保值手段仍不失为一个好的时机。
人们担心，美国联邦政府对经济衰退的应对措施，将使美元大幅贬值，最终沦为室内装修的原材料，温米尔将其称为“墙纸作用”。“我们目前的状况就像一场缓慢进行的交通事故，”他说。
夏末的这次金价飙升，始于伯南克称经济前景“存在异乎寻常的不确定性”的讲话，同时另一位美联储官员也提出，美联储可能需要重新开始购买美国国库券，以刺激商品及服务需求。温米尔则希望黄金在年底前涨至1,400美元每盎司。
尽管目前的黄金价格很高，但算上通胀因素，实际金价比1980年的最高纪录还低1,000多美元。30年前，正值上世纪70年代晚期通货膨胀大恐慌的高峰，一盎司黄金可以卖873美元，将通货膨胀因素计算在内之后，金价的最高纪录为2,310美元。
然而，如果照美国国家领导人目前这种做派下去，这个目标价位看来也是触手可及。
商务英语翻译温米尔表示：“除非联邦政府能规范其财政行为，否则黄金价格将持续缓慢上扬。”
译者：陈宝
Gold glitters on debt jitters
Questions about the health of Europe's banks helped send the price of gold near record levels Tuesday.
Gold rose $7 an ounce to $1,258, after a series of reports raised questions about banks' capital levels and their exposure to bonds issued by stressed nations such as Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain.
Tuesday's rally takes the gold price up almost $100 an ounce from its midsummer low and just a few dollars from the June record of $1,260. It also confirms the warnings of gold bulls, who insisted during a mostly calm summer that gold's selloff would turn around once the financial markets had to deal with another crisis.
But while the European bank crisis is in the headlines Tuesday, it mostly reminds investors of the grim bigger picture: A fragile recovery in which developed world governments struggle to rekindle growth without setting off alarms about their deteriorating finances.
"/The fear factor is what whips gold prices around," said Tom Winmill, who manages the $105 million Midas fund that invests in precious metals company stocks.
The biggest fear, Winmill adds, is that policymakers such as Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke will debase the value of the dollar by putting more money in circulation to aid a weak recovery. He expects U.S. gross domestic product growth to average just 1%-2% over the next decade, as the economy strains under an enormous debt burden and rising taxes.
Aggressive central bank action here and in Europe, together with the failure of Congress to confront never-ending U.S. overspending, point the way toward a sustained rise in gold prices for the balance of 2010 and beyond, Winmill said. He said that even with the tripling of gold prices over the past decade, it's still a good time to start a position in gold as a store of value.
"You might call it the wallpaper factor," Winmill said, referring to the worry that the Fed's response to the recession will leave the dollar useful only for interior decorating purposes. "What we're looking at is kind of a slow-moving traffic accident."
The late summer gold rally started when Bernanke pronounced the economic outlook "unusually uncertain" and another Fed official spoke of a possible need for the Fed to restart its purchases of Treasury bonds to prop up demand for goods and services. Winmill has been calling for gold to hit $1,400 by year-end.
Despite the big numbers, gold remains more than $1,000 below its inflation-adjusted all-time high, reached in 1980. An ounce of gold fetched $873 three decades ago, at the height of the late 1970s inflation scare. Adjusted for inflation, the all-time high is $2,310.
/ Our political leaders being who they are, though, that target seems to be well within reach.
"We're going to see gold moving slowly higher till we some fiscal discipline in Washington," Winmill said.