本文是留学生assignment范例，题目是“Risk Management on the Central Artery/Tunnel Project (Big Dig)（中央动脉/隧道项目(Big Dig)的风险管理）”，风险管理应用于所有项目的重要性再怎么强调也不为过，因为每个项目都有自己的风险。美国波士顿的中央动脉/隧道项目(Big Dig)于1982年开始动工，建造的目的是降低交通流量，创造更多的空间以容纳更多的汽车，以减少交通拥挤，为使用者带来经济和财政利益。这是一个具有挑战性的项目，因为与之相关的威胁和机会很多。
Abstract 摘要
The importance of the application of risk management to all projects cannot be overemphasized because every project has its own risk. The Central Artery/Tunnel project (Big Dig), Boston, United States commenced in 1982 and was built to reduce the traffic rate, create more space thereby accommodating more cars, for decongestion reasons, for economic and financial benefits to the users. It was a challenging project as there were lots of threats and opportunities associated with it.
This paper introduces the risk management approach to the project using M_O_R framework, principles, PESTLE analysis technique, and risk processes to identify (identify-context and identify risk), assess (estimate and evaluate), plan response, implement and communicate strategically on the issues associated with the project; The design risk, construction risk, environmental risk etc. Based on an extensive research and critical analysis from different journals and books, this paper will deliver an optimization-based methodology for a successful risk management application to the project.
本文介绍了使用M_O_R框架、原则、PESTLE分析技术和风险流程来识别(识别上下文和识别风险)、评估(估计和评估)、计划响应、实施和沟通与项目相关的问题的风险管理方法;设计风险、施工风险、环境风险等。基于对不同期刊和书籍的广泛研究和批判性分析，本文将为项目的成功风险管理应用提供基于优化的方法。
1.Introduction引言
According to M_O_R (2010), ‘risk is an uncertain events or set of events, should they occur, will have an effect on the realization of the objectives’ These uncertain events can be threats which will have a negative impact on the project or opportunities which will have a positive impact on the project if either one should occur. Risks have been defined and redefined by many authors and bodies, but one thing that remains constant is the uncertainty which can birth threats and opportunities. The Central Artery/Tunnel construction is among the most challenging highway megaproject with certain unique features evolving into threats and opportunities.
根据M_O_R(2010),“风险是一种不确定的事件或一系列事件,这些不确定事件可以是对项目产生负面影响的威胁，也可以是对项目产生积极影响的机会(如果其中任何一个发生的话)。风险已经被许多作家和团体定义了又定义，但有一件事是不变的，那就是可能带来出生威胁和机会的不确定性。中央动脉/隧道的建设是最具挑战性的大型公路项目之一，其某些独特的特点演变成威胁和机遇。
The central artery/tunnel project also known as the Big Dig is located at the center of Boston, Massachusetts. The construction consisted of the: Central artery to be replaced by extending the subterranean highway and the Charles river consisting of two bridges (called Leonard P. Zakim Bunker Hill Bridge) located at the north end of Boston and the extension of the Massachusetts Turnpike(interstate 90) from the South Boston which channels through Ted Williams tunnel in the south and harbour of Boston; this will meet Boston's airport called Logan Airport( Mass.gov, 2018).
The planning of the big dig started in 1982 with an initial cost of $2.8b and approved in 1987 for construction to commence by the Massachusetts Highway Department and Massachusetts Turnpike Authority (MTA). Bechtel/Parsons Brinckerhoff designed and managed the construction (the management consultant). The project was completed in 2007 with an estimated cost of $14.8b. The construction of the road systems and tunnels were dedicated to creating more space for cars and parks. To reduce the high traffic rate in Boston. For economic, financial and transportation purposes for the users as this will save cost, time and preserve life. The challenge was constructing a project in the heart of Boston and keeping it operational as any wrong shift would have crippled the city's economy.
Due to unforeseen risks in the design and construction, issues arose. Why were the risks not identified and mitigated before the commencement of the project? This research centers on critically answering the above question by identifying the threats and opportunities in the project using the M_O_R framework. The M_O_R framework is used because of its approach to risk which is much more detailed. The terminologies are defined followed by discussions, findings, and propositions well-articulated.
2.Background背景
The Central Artery was designed to contain about 75,000 vehicles per day when it was opened in 1959 (Barlette school of planning, 2014). Following the escalation traffic rate, it rose to 200,000 vehicles per day in the 1990s. This also affected the two tunnels under Boston Harbour and the Logan airport (Euchner, 2002). They commenced the planning for the Big Dig project in 1982 while the environmental impact assessment was done in 1983. The Joint Ventured operators and some subcontractors developed a design and the paperwork for the Environmental impact assessment (Bartlett, 2014).
中央动脉在1959年开放时，设计为每天容纳约7.5万辆汽车(Barlette 规划学院，2014)。随着交通流量的增加，在20世纪90年代，它上升到每天20万辆车。这也影响了波士顿港和洛根机场下的两条隧道(Euchner, 2002)。他们于1982年开始规划大挖掘工程，1983年进行了环境影响评估。Joint venture运营商和一些分包商为环境影响评估制定了设计和文件(Bartlett, 2014)。
In 1997 the federal highway administration (FHWA) signed a management agreement with the Commonwealth of Massachusetts (COM), Massachusetts Executive Office of Transportation and Construction (EOTC), Massachusetts Highway Department (MHD) and Massachusetts Turnpike Authority (MTA) (Bartlett School of Planning, 2014). B/PB reported to COM and in turn, the contractors would implement that direction throughout the designated phases of the project. MTA served as operator and collecting revenues from tolls, leasing of land and advertisement (Federal highway administration, 2012). The project consisted of 2 major constructions namely:
Charles River bridges (now Leonard P. Zakim Bunker Hill Bridge) used an asymmetrical hybrid design (using steel and concrete) which estimated $100m is the underground Central Artery and is still one of the uniquely made bridges in the world (Road traffic technology, 2018). Ted Williams Tunnel: The four-lane Ted Williams Tunnel forms part of the I-90 extension link and was built using a 12 steel sections sunk. It was estimated to cost $1.3bn. It commenced In 1991 and was the first major target of the Big Dig to be completed in 1995 (Road traffic technology, 2018). The Joint Venture of Bechtel and Parson Brinckerhoff managed the project and prepared Environmental Impact Assessments (EIS) (Bechtel/Parsons Brinckerhoff,2006). According to Huges (1998), they were hired to provide designs and manage the construction contractors. The design consultants were responsible for the designing.
The construction contractors on the project included Jay Cashman, Modern Continental, Gannett Fleming Inc, Obayashi Corporation, Perini Corporation, Peter Kiewit Sons' Incorporated, J.F. White and the Slattery division of Skanska USA (Modern Continental was awarded the largest value of contracts) and Power Fastners that supplied the concrete to hold roof panels (Road traffic technology, 2018). In conjunction with the management of the project, B/PB was also responsible for monitoring the contractors' compliance with the terms and conditions of each of their construction contracts. Between 1999 and 2001, most parts of the construction were completed (Misic & Radujkovic, 2015).
3.Literature Review文献综述
According to PMBOK 5th edition (2017), a risk is managed by processes such as risk management plan, risk identification, qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis, qualitative analysis, risk response plan, risk implementation response, risk monitoring. According to Deloitte, (2017) project risks can be managed by identification and assessment, measurement and mitigation, monitoring and reporting. According to Larson & Gray 7th edition (2017), risk management can be done through identification of risk, assessing risk, risk response development, and risk response control.
根据PMBOK第5版(2017)，风险是由风险管理计划、风险识别、定性分析、定量分析、定性分析、风险应对计划、风险实施应对、风险监控等过程管理的。根据Deloitte，(2017)项目风险可以通过识别和评估、测量和缓解、监测和报告来管理。根据Larson & Gray第七版(2017)，风险管理可以通过识别风险、评估风险、开发风险响应和控制风险响应来完成。
Although in the Big Dig project, risks were managed by identification, assess, allocate, respond, control and communicate. Li et al (2001) proposed a 3level risk factor classification for PPPs projects which are macro (ecological, political, economic, social, natural environment, etc) risks, meso (project-engineering) risks, and soft (micro level) risks. So due to uniqueness in the risk management of p3 projects, an exhaustive identification of risk is mandatory.
The first step in the MOR framework is the management of risk principles which consist of Alignment with of risk management with the project objectives, fitting of risk management with the current context, engagement of stakeholders with their perception of risks and to be aware of all relevant risks. The risk management approach which comprises of Risk management policy for communicating the reasons and the processes risks management will be implemented in accordance with the objectives of the project company. The risk management process guide helps to describe how the processes embedded in the framework will be carried out throughout the project. Risk management strategy is about outlining the strategic importance of risk management to the project company and asserting the risk appetite and tolerance the organization is willing to take.
The risk process: Identify- risk identification is recognizing what risks might affect the project which is aimed at minimizing the threats while maximizing the opportunities. the techniques might be SWOT analysis, PESTLE analysis etc, checklist and building a risk register. Appropriate risk assessment process plays a major role in the proper allocation of risk which is associated with p3 and help in decision making. The assessment and estimation of risk is to prioritize individual risks in other to classify risks according to their level and time of impact. Using techniques such as probability assessment, impact assessment etc to estimate the risk and probability trees, summary risk profiles generated from the estimation of risk, sensitivity analysis etc and finally allocating risk.
According to Han & Diekmann (2004), decision trees, sensitivity analysis are the most common method of risk assessment. The assessed risk is further planned ways to respond to the opportunities and threats identified and assessed. Responding to risks helps strategies to be considered using techniques like cost-benefit analysis and decision trees generated from the evaluation of risks. When the risks have been responded to and planned, the implementation commences which ensures that the response planned are implemented, monitored and corrective actions are taken where necessary. the MOR framework was uniquely made in the sense that it gathers all the risk management models, techniques and approach into a single framework and the risk implemented is communicated.
4.Nature of Risks in Transportation Construction of Mega-Projects大型工程运输建设风险的性质
Construction projects are among the unique features with complications, high financial implications and most times, a prolonged life cycle. Cost overruns mostly occur, and traffic is either underestimated or overestimated. In 2003 (Flyvbjerg et al) wrote an article and case studies identifying the causes of cost overruns and he concluded that traffic forecasts were part of it, with rail projects generating an average of 35% less traffic than forecast while highway projects averaged a 10% under-estimate of traffic. Flyvbjerg et al (2003) quoted that the “cost estimates used in public debates, media coverage, and decision making for transport infrastructure are high, systematically, and significantly deceptive.
建筑项目的独特之处在于其复杂性、高财务影响以及大多数情况下延长的生命周期。成本超支经常发生，交通流量要么被低估，要么被高估。2003年(Flyvbjerg等人)写了一篇文章和案例研究，确定了成本超支的原因，他得出的结论是，交通预测是其中的一部分，铁路项目产生的交通平均比预测少35%，而公路项目平均比预测少10%。Flyvbjerg等人(2003)引用“在公共辩论、媒体报道和交通基础设施决策中使用的成本估算是高的、系统的，而且具有明显的欺骗性。”
So are the cost-benefit analyses" Flyvbjerg went further to explain that the incentives involved makes the project managers and promoters very optimistic and this is because of lack of share of risk and ownership, not technical know-how. He further analyzed that this happens in PPPs projects where the government is the promoter and financier while private firms produce designs, operate and maintain. Asking why risk is disregarded leads Flyvbjerg to question the conventional approach to project development, in which government is the project promoter and financier, and private firms only design, operate, build and maintain (public-private partnership).
The impact of this is largely on the taxpayers. According to trio Zou & Jiayuan (2008), Project time delay risks can be caused by poor project scope definition, project complexity, improper planning, project schedule, design errors and inaccurate engineering estimate. In some cases, inaccuracy of materials and equipment can cause a shortage, and this causes delay. Risks may arise due to lack of quality materials or supplying of under- specified materials. Another huge problem is design risks. Design risk can be caused by inappropriate design, using an inexperienced design personnel Project environmental risks is another factor which includes improper environmental risk assessment etc. A year after in the big dig construction, the Leonard P. Zakim bunker hill bridge was completed.
By 2007, Boston’s city was restored back as smaller construction continues. Unfortunately, according to reports, On July 10, 2006, one of the newly constructed tunnels) a part of one of the newly constructed tunnels’ (the I-90 connector tunnel) detached from the tunnel roof and fell onto the vehicle killing the passenger NTSB, (2007) and this could be attributed to statement above.
5.Research Method研究方法
The M_O_R framework will be used to analyze the central artery/tunnel. This is used because Proper risk management will reduce the likelihood of a negative event occurring and the magnitude of its impact; the MOR serves as a holistic approach in the management of risk.M.O.R Risk management The central artery /tunnel megaproject was chosen because of it is one of the first mega construction projects in the United States dealing with diverse contractors and private companies.
M_O_R框架将用于分析中央动脉/隧道。这样做的原因是，适当的风险管理将减少负面事件发生的可能性及其影响的程度;选择中央动脉/隧道大型项目，是因为它是美国第一个与不同承包商和私人公司打交道的大型建设项目。
This research delivers its objectives by understanding the risks associated with the big dig and P3. Data will be collected from online journals, books, megaprojects articles, federal Highway administration, the Bechtel/Parsons Brinckerhoff websites, Boston’s website etc.
6.Analysis分析
Risk objective of the Central Artery/tunnel mission was to build a standard risk management program for construction focusing on opportunities and threats. The Principles of risk management is to develop a shared vision of risk which aligns with the strategic management goals of the organization. To Implement a risk management practice that will fit into the context both internally or externally. To Engage the public and the stakeholders at every step of the risk management process using effective communication channels and Provision of clear guidance for risk management practices to be clearly stated in other for stakeholders to see how the risks are identified, assessed, planned, implemented and controlled.
中央动脉/隧道任务的风险目标是建立一个标准的建设风险管理程序，重点关注机遇和威胁。风险管理的原则是制定与组织战略管理目标相一致的风险共同愿景。实施风险管理实践，以适应内部或外部环境。利用有效的沟通渠道，让公众和利益相关者参与风险管理过程的每一个步骤，并提供清晰的风险管理指引，让利益相关者了解如何识别、评估、计划、实施和控制风险。
As well as Inform the decision makers to be knowledgeable in the threats and opportunities that lie in the project, so they can make appropriate decisions. In summary, to Manage risk from the conception stage to the completion stage ( Greiman, 2013).
This research has achieved its objective of identifying, assessing, planning, implementing and communicating risks in the big dig project. It also identified the risks associated with PPP megaprojects. Using the MOR framework, risks were identified and transferred accordingly. Although from the analysis, the appropriate ways of dealing with such complex projects are yet to be achieved. Project promoters, public agencies, broad scope, inaccurate estimates, environmental surprises, high certainty, lack of competence and more contribute to the failure of such projects. As gathered from several journals, articles and books, the management of risks were poorly done and even though the designers and contractors paid a substantial amount, the public users are at the weaker end.
本研究实现了在大挖掘项目中识别、评估、规划、实施和沟通风险的目标。它还确定了与PPP超大型项目相关的风险。使用MOR框架，风险被识别并相应转移。虽然从分析来看，还没有找到处理这类复杂项目的适当方法。项目推动者、公共机构、范围广泛、估算不准确、环境惊喜、确定性高、能力不足等都是导致此类项目失败的原因。根据一些期刊、文章和书籍的收集，风险管理做得很差，即使设计师和承包商支付了一大笔钱，公众用户处于弱势。
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