Centre for Retail Research
留学生电子商务课程论文Online Retailing: Britain and Europe
E-commerce is one of the fastest growing markets in Europe. The statistics are problematic asstate statistical research organisations tend to underestimate the size of the sector.
Based on CRR research commissioned by Kelkoo, 2010 online sales in the UK were £44 billion
(52 billion) or 10.7% of UK retail trade (+16% on 2008).
For Europe (including UK), the total market was worth £145,600 million in 2010 (up from
£102,900 million in 2008). Online retailers in only three countries, UK, Germany and Franceaccounted for 71% of European online sales.Online sales in Germany were £33.2 billion (39.2 billion), 8.0% of retail sales (+14% over 2009).
In France, where online retailers grew at one of the fastest rates in Europe, 2010 online saleswere £26.4 billion (39.2 billion) or 6.0% of retail sales (+26% over 2009).
Internet and broadband
An average of 66% of households in Europe was connected to the Internet in 2009, and 60%used broadband. The Nordic countries and The Netherlands had much higher internet
penetration (over 80%), and broadband rates of more than 70%.
What's Happening in 2011?
We are, as usual cautious in our UK forecast. We see a 14.0% increase in online sales to reach
£50.3 billion (59.4 billion). This means that the UK will be the first European country withonline sales of more than 12.0% (against 10.7%) in 2010. Last year we forecast that UK onlinewould rise to a 10.5% market share in 2010; it was actually 10.7%.
In 2011, online sales in Europe are forecast by CRR to grow by 18.7% to a new total of £171.8billion (202.9 billion).
5.9%
2.5%
3.0%
3.3%
4.3%
5.8%
6.0%
6.8%
7.0%
7.4%
8.0%
10.7%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
average
Spain
Neth/Bel/Lux
France
Denmark
Germany
Share of Retail Trade
Online Share of Retail Trade 2010
Centre for Retail Research
We expect the rate of growth of online retailing in the UK, France, Spain and Italy to be slightlylower in 2011 than 2010, but German online to grow slightly faster. But with European average
growth expected to be 18.7% this year, it is still a cracking pace.
US Online Sales
As the country that taught us all how to do online sales and once had annual sales growth ofmore than 25%, growth online in the US has diminished (see Figure below). However retail sales
through conventional shops have slumped badly and in comparison online sales have not donetoo badly./ Online had a good year-end in 2010 so it is just possible that US ecommerce will pick
up speed. Online retail sales in the US have a market share somewhere between 8% and 9%.
But This may indicate that online sales in the US as a percentage of retail sales may soon fallbelow the level of several European countries.
(Source: adjusted Forrester estimates)
Forecast Growth in Online Sales 2011
Increase
Online
Sales 2010-
11
2011 online
share of all
retail
business
UK 14.0% 12.0%
Germany 15.0% 9.0%
France 24.0% 7.3%
Italy 20.0% 3.9%
Spain 19.0% 3.5%
Benelux 20.4% 5.1%
Norway 22.0% 8.1%
Sweden 22.1% 6.9%
Denmark 16.0% 8.0%
Switzerland 19.8% 8.7%
Poland 33.5% 3.1%
Average Europe 18.7% 6.9%
$248.7
$229.8
$210.0
$191.7
$172.9
$155.2 $152.2
8.2%
9.4% 9.5%
10.9% 11.4%
2.0%
13.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
$0.0
$50.0
$100.0
$150.0
$200.0
$250.0
2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
Total Online
Retail Sales
($billions)
Growth in U.S. Online Retail Sales 2008-14
($ billions)
Online Sales Percentage Change