International Studies Essay范文-世界人口,本文是一篇留学生国际研究课程作业范文,主要内容是介绍托马斯·马尔萨斯是人口与资源平衡问题上最有影响力的作家之一。马尔萨斯认为，纵观历史，每一个人口的一部分似乎注定要贫穷。他在一篇关于人口原理的文章中解释说，人口增长通常先于人口资源的扩张，特别是粮食的主要资源，因为如果不加以控制，人口将以几何速率增长（即1、2、4、8、16等），而粮食供应则以算术速率增长（即1、2、3、4、5等）。幸运的是，马尔萨斯的大部分预测都被全世界的智慧证明是错误的。下面就一起参考这篇International Studies国际研究课程作业的全部内容.
One of the most influential writers on the topic of balance of population and resources was Thomas Malthus. Malthus believed that throughout history a segment of every human population seemed doomed to poverty. He explains in his An Essay on the Principle of Population, that population growth generally preceded expansion of the population’s resources, in particular the primary resource of food because population, if unchecked, increases at a geometric rate (i.e. 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, etc.), whereas the food-supply grows at an arithmetic rate (i.e. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 etc.). Fortunately, most of Malthus’s predictions have been proven wrong by the world’s ingenuity (Wikipedia, 2008).
Historical World Population 历史世界人口
When viewed against human history, population growth is a fairly recent phenomenon. Prior to 1 AD, the world’s population growth was very slow with most estimates showing population in 1 AD around 300 million. From 1 AD it took about 1600 years for the world’s population to double to 600 million. By 1750, estimates show the population had grown to about 800 million people. In 1800 the estimated population grew to 1 billion people resulting in a doubling rate of approximately 200 years. Since 1750, the world’s population has grown at an unprecedented rate. In 1900 the world’s population estimate was 1.7 billion people, nearly doubling the population just 100 years earlier (Raleigh, 1999).
从人类历史来看，人口增长是一个相当新的现象。在公元1年之前，世界人口增长非常缓慢，大多数估计显示公元1年的人口约为3亿。从公元1年开始，世界人口用了大约1600年的时间翻了一番，达到6亿。据估计，到1750年，人口已增长到8亿左右。1800年，估计人口增长到10亿，导致大约200年的增长率翻倍。自1750年以来，世界人口以前所未有的速度增长。1900年，世界人口估计为17亿，几乎是100年前人口的两倍。
Prior to 1750 high birth rates were tempered by relatively high death rates with occasional catastrophic death rates from war, famines, and infectious diseases. Infectious diseases such as bubonic plague and tuberculosis took a serious toll on Europe’s population between the 6th and 14th centuries. When the bubonic plague struck England in 1348, the countries population dropped 20 percent in just three years. During this period England’s life expectancy of over 30 years dropped to just 18 years. Population growth in Europe was also controlled through self imposed social restrictions on procreation as a response to the availability of economic resources (Raleigh, 1999).
1750年之前，高出生率受到相对较高死亡率的影响，偶尔会出现战争、饥荒和传染病造成的灾难性死亡率。6世纪至14世纪，黑死病和肺结核等传染病对欧洲人口造成了严重影响。当1348年淋巴腺鼠疫袭击英国时，该国人口在短短三年内下降了20%。在此期间，英国30多年的预期寿命下降到了18岁。作为对经济资源可用性的回应，欧洲的人口增长也通过对生育的自我施加的社会限制来控制。
Europe finally broke the demographic stalemate in the mid 18th century when they ended the near equilibrium birth and death rates. The disappearance of some of the great killer diseases resulted in greater longevity and thus higher populations. Improved health measures, medical advances, improved sanitation, personal hygiene, and living standards throughout the 9th century brought even greater longevity. Improved longevity was countered by a desire for smaller families and the growing use of abortion and contraception (Raleigh, 1999).
18世纪中期，欧洲终于打破了人口僵局，结束了接近平衡的出生率和死亡率。一些致命疾病的消失导致寿命延长，从而导致人口增加。在整个9世纪，改善健康措施、医疗进步、改善卫生、个人卫生和生活水平带来了更长寿。寿命的提高被对小家庭的渴望以及堕胎和避孕的日益使用所抵消。
Although the demographic transition to what is typical in developed countries (long-living family with limited number of children) took nearly two centuries, the transition in developing countries has occurred over just the last 50 years as advanced public health and prevention technologies have been shared world-wide. Although fertility declines have occurred in developing countries they have been slower than the population gains through greater longevity, resulting in tremendous population growth over the past two centuries. By 1900 the world’s population took 65 years to double; by 1930 the doubling rate was 45 years; and by 1960, the doubling rate was 40 years. In the year 2000, there were an estimated 6 billion people on the earth, the last 50 years of which saw more population added to the earth than in the whole known history of the world to that point (Raleigh, 1999).
虽然人口结构向发达国家典型的转变（孩子数量有限的长寿家庭）花费了近两个世纪的时间，但随着先进的公共卫生和预防技术在全球范围内的普及，发展中国家的人口结构转变仅发生在过去50年中。虽然发展中国家的生育率有所下降，但由于寿命延长，生育率低于人口增长，导致过去两个世纪人口大幅增长。到1900年，世界人口用了65年才翻了一番；到1930年，翻倍率为45年；到了1960年，翻倍率达到了40年。2000年，地球上估计有60亿人口，在过去50年中，地球上新增的人口超过了迄今为止整个已知的世界历史。
Current World Population 当前世界人口
According to the United Nations, the world’s population growth peaked in the 1980’s with small declines in growth occurring throughout the 1990’s. But even with those declines, the world adds approximately 78 million people to the population every year. Until the 1970’s the fertility rate was fairly constant at 5 births per woman. The fertility rate has fallen drastically since then with the current fertility rate of approximately 3 births per woman. Although all high fertility countries fertility rates are declining they still vary from 1.2 births per woman in some European countries to over 6 for some African women (United Nations, 2007).
根据联合国的数据，世界人口增长在20世纪80年代达到顶峰，整个90年代都出现了小幅下降。但即使有这些下降，世界人口每年仍增加约7800万。直到20世纪70年代，生育率相当稳定，每个妇女生育5个孩子。自那时以来，生育率急剧下降，目前的生育率约为每名妇女生育3个孩子。尽管所有高生育率国家的生育率都在下降，但在一些欧洲国家，每名妇女生育1.2个孩子，而在一些非洲国家，每名妇女生育6个孩子。
Globally, 132 million babies are born each year and 52 million people die, approximately 20 percent of which are ages 5 and younger. According to the World Health Organization, about one-third of deaths are due to infectious and parasitic diseases, one-third are due to circulatory diseases, and 12% are due to cancer (Raleigh, 1999).
全球每年有1.32亿婴儿出生，5200万人死亡，其中约20%的人年龄在5岁及以下。根据世界卫生组织的数据，大约三分之一的死亡是由于传染病和寄生虫病，三分之一是由于循环系统疾病，12%是由于癌症。
Projected World Growth 预计世界增长
Although fertility rates have declined over prior decades, the high fertility rates of the past have resulted in a large population that has entered the reproductive years of their lives. Because of this large population, the number of births world-wide is not expected to decline until approximately 2025 resulting in unavoidable growth throughout the next 50 years. The future fertility rate will then determine the world’s population growth (Raleigh, 1999).
虽然生育率在过去几十年中有所下降，但过去的高生育率导致大量人口进入了生育年龄。由于人口众多，全球出生人数预计要到2025年左右才会下降，这将导致未来50年不可避免的增长。未来的生育率将决定世界人口增长
There are five main sources of projected world population growth. The United Nations Population Division produces the most widely used compilation of current and past estimates of population size, age structure, and birth and death rates. The United States Census Bureau produces its own baseline data, although its estimates are not completely independent from those of the UN. A third source, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) uses baseline data on population size, total fertility rates, and life expectancies from the Population Reference Bureau. The fourth source, the Population Reference Bureau bases its estimates on the work of the UN, and independent consideration of other sources including official country statistics, the Council of Europe, and the U.S. Census Bureau. The fifth source is the World Bank, whose projections are generally used for planning and managing projects. Even though each of these organizations uses slightly different methodologies, makes different assumptions about future demographic trends, and begins with slightly different estimates of current population size their population projections fall within a relatively small band for the next 50 years
预计世界人口增长有五个主要来源。联合国人口司编制了使用最广泛的人口规模、年龄结构、出生率和死亡率的当前和过去估计数汇编。尽管美国人口普查局的估计并非完全独立于联合国的估计，但它还是自行编制了基线数据。第三个来源是国际应用系统分析研究所（IIASA）使用人口参考局提供的关于人口规模、总生育率和预期寿命的基线数据。第四个来源是人口参考局，其估计基于联合国的工作，并独立考虑其他来源，包括官方国家统计数据、欧洲委员会和美国人口普查局。第五个来源是世界银行，其预测通常用于规划和管理项目。尽管这些组织使用的方法略有不同，对未来的人口趋势作出了不同的假设，并从对当前人口规模的略有不同的估计开始，但它们对未来50年的人口预测仍处于相对较小的范围内
shows a summary of global population projections from three of the major sources. The middle or “most likely” scenarios from the UN, IIASA, and the U.S. Census Bureau are similar that they differ by about 10% in 2050 and 9% in 2100. The UN projects the least amount of growth, reaching approximately 8.9 billion in 2050. IIASA projects the most growth, reaching approximately 9.9 billion in the same year. The USCB projects a population of approximately 9.3 billion in 2050. The 2100 population projections follow a similar pattern with IIASA projecting a global population declining 10.4 billion in 2100 after peaking in 2080. The UN projects a smaller population of approximately 9.5 billion in 2100, but one that is still growing slowly (O’Neill, 2001).
显示了三个主要来源的全球人口预测摘要。联合国、IIASA和美国人口普查局的中间或“最有可能”情景相似，2050年和2100年的差异分别约为10%和9%。联合国预测增长量最小，2050年达到约89亿。IIASA预测增长最大，同年达到约99亿。美国公民及移民局预测2050年的人口约为93亿。2100年的人口预测遵循与IIASA类似的模式，IIASA预测全球人口在2080年达到峰值后在2100年减少104亿。联合国预测2100年的人口约为95亿，但仍在缓慢增长。
It is obvious from looking at that each of these organizations uses different assumptions in their scenarios. Primary assumptions that are used in each of these organizations’ projections include birth rate, death rate, and demographic transition (migration) scenarios. In developing countries, the primary driver of the projections is the fertility or birth rate. Since fertility rates are currently higher in developing countries than they are in developed countries a big decline in fertility rates in developing countries can have a drastic impact on the resulting population estimate. Migration is a primary driver in scenarios with more developed countries since birth and death rates nearly cancel each other out (O’Neill, 2001).
可以明显看出，每个组织在其场景中使用不同的假设。每个组织预测中使用的主要假设包括出生率、死亡率和人口转变（移民）场景。在发展中国家，预测的主要驱动因素是生育率或出生率。由于目前发展中国家的生育率高于发达国家，发展中国家生育率的大幅下降可能会对由此产生的人口估计产生重大影响。在较发达国家的情况下，移民是一个主要驱动因素，因为出生率和死亡率几乎相互抵消
Projections of global population growth differ less between the different institutions than do projections at the country level. Differences in assumptions and results at the country and region level often cancel each other when aggregated to global levels. In some cases, agreement in projections of population size masks large differences in underlying assumptions with offsetting effects, such as a scenario in a region with high fertility rate and high death rate and a competing scenario with a low fertility rate and a low death rate (O’Neill, 2001).
与国家一级的预测相比，不同机构对全球人口增长的预测差异较小。当汇总到全球层面时，国家和地区层面的假设和结果差异往往相互抵消。在某些情况下，人口规模预测的一致性掩盖了具有抵消效应的基本假设的巨大差异，例如高生育率和高死亡率地区的情景以及低生育率和低死亡率的竞争情景。
One of the major diseases that will likely impact population growth models over the next several decades is HIV/AIDS. Although the disease isn’t of the same scale as some of the pre-industrial age diseases, it is having a huge impact on mortality in some regions of the world. Of the 52 million deaths that occur each year, approximately 2.1 million are from AIDS. USAIDS estimates that 33.2 million people with HIV and 2.5 million new cases every year. Since the disease impacts people in the prime of their reproductive life and has such a large impact in some regions of the world most models attempt to account for this disease (UNAIDS, 2007).
艾滋病毒/艾滋病是未来几十年可能影响人口增长模式的主要疾病之一。虽然该疾病的规模与一些工业化前的疾病不同，但它对世界某些地区的死亡率产生了巨大影响。在每年发生的5200万死亡病例中，约有210万人死于艾滋病。美国国际开发署估计，每年有3320万艾滋病毒感染者和250万新病例。由于该疾病影响到处于生育高峰期的人，并且在世界上一些地区有如此大的影响，大多数模型试图解释该疾病。
Projected Demographics 预计人口统计
One of the biggest results of the population growth is simply that there will be a larger population that needs a place to live and food to eat.
人口增长的最大结果之一就是，将有更多的人口需要一个地方居住和食物。
Another result is the continued trend toward increasing urbanization. The UN projects that nearly all of the population growth will occur in urban areas with the number of urban dwellers expecting to pass rural dwellers in 2008. In the next couple of decades the number of rural dwellers is expecting to start declining (United Nations, 2007).
另一个结果是不断增加的城市化趋势。联合国预测，几乎所有人口增长都将发生在城市地区，2008年城市居民的数量预计将超过农村居民。在未来几十年，农村居民的数量预计将开始下降（联合国，2007年）。
There will also be a higher concentration of people in less developed countries. Nearly half of the babies born into the world are born in only six countries India (22%), China (11%), Pakistan (4%), Nigeria (4%), Indonesia (4%) and Bangladesh (3%) (Chamie, 2005).
人口也将更加集中在欠发达国家。世界上近一半的婴儿出生在六个国家：印度（22%）、中国（11%）、巴基斯坦（4%）、尼日利亚（4%）、印度尼西亚（4%）和孟加拉国（3%）。
By 2050, the populations of over 50 countries are expected to decline, including some well developed countries. The three largest countries projected to loose people (Russian Federation, Ukraine, and Japan) are expected to decline by a combined 67 million people (Chamie, 2005).
到2050年，包括一些发达国家在内的50多个国家的人口预计将减少。预计人口减少最多的三个国家（俄罗斯联邦、乌克兰和日本）预计将减少6700万人。
It is projected that by 2050, every major region of the world, except Africa, will be at or below replacement fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman. Today, 65 countries, accounting for 43% of world population, have fertility rates at or below the replacement level. As a result, many countries are concerned about population decline and ageing, as well as the social, economic and cultural consequences of very low fertility (Chamie, 2005).
预计到2050年，除非洲外，世界各主要地区的更替生育率将达到或低于每名妇女2.1个孩子的水平。今天，占世界人口43%的65个国家的生育率处于或低于更替水平。因此，许多国家担心人口下降和老龄化，以及极低生育率的社会、经济和文化后果。
With the exception of sub-Saharan Africa mortality rates and longevity are expected to continue to increase with global life expectancy for those born in 2050 to be about 76 years (Chamie, 2005).
除撒哈拉以南非洲以外，随着2050年出生者的全球预期寿命约为76岁，死亡率和寿命预计将继续增加。
As people live longer the population will include more people over the age of 65. It is estimated that by 2050 the percentage of the population over will 65 will double from the present 7 percent to about 15 percent. Population ageing raises serious questions about the financial viability of pension and health care systems for the elderly (Chamie, 2005).
随着人们寿命的延长，人口将包括更多的65岁以上的人。据估计，到2050年，65岁以上人口的百分比将从目前的7%增加到15%左右。人口老龄化对老年人养老金和医疗保健系统的财务可行性提出了严重问题。
The more developed countries will continue to be net receivers of international immigrants with an estimated 2 million immigrants per year for the next 50 years. This brain drain of the most educated people in the less developed countries will increase the challenges of developmental efforts in the less developed countries (Chamie, 2005).
较发达国家将继续成为国际移民的净接受者，在未来50年内，估计每年有200万移民。欠发达国家受教育程度最高的人的这种人才外流将增加欠发达国家发展努力的挑战。
Conclusion 结论
As the changing world population continues to increase so will the demand for food. As less developed countries become more developed and peoples’ incomes increase either in their country of birth or the country they have migrated to they will demand more food and more calories forcing our world’s resources to be spread among an additional 2 to 3 billion people. As this occurs, the topic of food security will once again be at the forefront of many conversations.
References 参考文献
Chamie, J. 2005. 21st century demographics: highs and lows. The globalist, Jul 14, 2005.
O’Neill, B.C, D. Balk, M. Brickman, and M. Ezra. 2001. A guide to global population projections. Demographic research, Vol. 4. Art. 8.
Population Reference Bureau. 2001. Understanding and using population projections.
Raleigh, V.S. 1999. Trends in world population: how will the millennium compare with the past? Human reproduction update 1999, Vol. 5, No.5p. 500-505.
UNAIDS. 2007. Aids epidemic update: December 2007. New York.
United Nations. 2007. World population prospects: The 2006 revision. United Nations Secretariat, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, New York.
Wikipedia contributors. 2008. “Thomas Malthus,” Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.
essay范文总结到随着不断变化的世界人口继续增加，对粮食的需求也将增加。随着欠发达国家变得更加发达，人们在出生国或移民国的收入增加，他们将需要更多的粮食和更多的卡路里，迫使我们世界的资源在另外20亿至30亿人之间分配。随着这种情况的发生，粮食安全问题将再次成为许多对话的前沿话题。本站提供各国各专业essay写作指导服务,如有需要可咨询本平台